Accurate uncertainty quantification is necessary to enhance the reliability of deep learning models in real-world applications. In the case of regression tasks, prediction intervals (PIs) should be provided along with the deterministic predictions of deep learning models. Such PIs are useful or "high-quality'' as long as they are sufficiently narrow and capture most of the probability density. In this paper, we present a method to learn prediction intervals for regression-based neural networks automatically in addition to the conventional target predictions. In particular, we train two companion neural networks: one that uses one output, the target estimate, and another that uses two outputs, the upper and lower bounds of the corresponding PI. Our main contribution is the design of a loss function for the PI-generation network that takes into account the output of the target-estimation network and has two optimization objectives: minimizing the mean prediction interval width and ensuring the PI integrity using constraints that maximize the prediction interval probability coverage implicitly. Both objectives are balanced within the loss function using a self-adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, we apply a Monte Carlo-based approach that evaluates the model uncertainty in the learned PIs. Experiments using a synthetic dataset, six benchmark datasets, and a real-world crop yield prediction dataset showed that our method was able to maintain a nominal probability coverage and produce narrower PIs without detriment to its target estimation accuracy when compared to those PIs generated by three state-of-the-art neural-network-based methods.

作物产量预测是基于领域的多源周期性观察可以自动化的精密农业任务之一。我们使用培训的卷积神经网络（CNN）在与结合雷达卫星图像和地面信息的数据上培训的卷积神经网络（CNN）来解决产量预测问题。我们介绍了一个名为Hyper3DNETREG的CNN架构，其采用多通道输入图像并输出二维栅格，其中每个像素表示相应的输入像素的预测产量值。我们利用从Sentinel-1卫星获取的雷达数据，而在地面数据对应于一组六个光栅特征：施加的氮速率，降水，坡度，高度，地形位置指数（TPI）和方面。我们使用在冬小麦生长季节（3月）早期收集的数据来预测收获季节（8月）期间的产量值。我们在冬小麦的四个领域提出了实验，并表明我们的提出方法产生了比五个比较方法更好的结果，包括多个线性回归，使用Adaboost，堆叠的AutoEncoder和另外两个CNN架构的前馈网络的集合。

The broad usage of mobile devices nowadays, the sensitiveness of the information contained in them, and the shortcomings of current mobile user authentication methods are calling for novel, secure, and unobtrusive solutions to verify the users' identity. In this article, we propose TypeFormer, a novel Transformer architecture to model free-text keystroke dynamics performed on mobile devices for the purpose of user authentication. The proposed model consists in Temporal and Channel Modules enclosing two Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent layers, Gaussian Range Encoding (GRE), a multi-head Self-Attention mechanism, and a Block-Recurrent structure. Experimenting on one of the largest public databases to date, the Aalto mobile keystroke database, TypeFormer outperforms current state-of-the-art systems achieving Equal Error Rate (EER) values of 3.25% using only 5 enrolment sessions of 50 keystrokes each. In such way, we contribute to reducing the traditional performance gap of the challenging mobile free-text scenario with respect to its desktop and fixed-text counterparts. Additionally, we analyse the behaviour of the model with different experimental configurations such as the length of the keystroke sequences and the amount of enrolment sessions, showing margin for improvement with more enrolment data. Finally, a cross-database evaluation is carried out, demonstrating the robustness of the features extracted by TypeFormer in comparison with existing approaches.

Early recognition of clinical deterioration (CD) has vital importance in patients' survival from exacerbation or death. Electronic health records (EHRs) data have been widely employed in Early Warning Scores (EWS) to measure CD risk in hospitalized patients. Recently, EHRs data have been utilized in Machine Learning (ML) models to predict mortality and CD. The ML models have shown superior performance in CD prediction compared to EWS. Since EHRs data are structured and tabular, conventional ML models are generally applied to them, and less effort is put into evaluating the artificial neural network's performance on EHRs data. Thus, in this article, an extremely boosted neural network (XBNet) is used to predict CD, and its performance is compared to eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) models. For this purpose, 103,105 samples from thirteen Brazilian hospitals are used to generate the models. Moreover, the principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to verify whether it can improve the adopted models' performance. The performance of ML models and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), an EWS candidate, are evaluated in CD prediction regarding the accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and geometric mean (G-mean) metrics in a 10-fold cross-validation approach. According to the experiments, the XGBoost model obtained the best results in predicting CD among Brazilian hospitals' data.

A quantitative assessment of the global importance of an agent in a team is as valuable as gold for strategists, decision-makers, and sports coaches. Yet, retrieving this information is not trivial since in a cooperative task it is hard to isolate the performance of an individual from the one of the whole team. Moreover, it is not always clear the relationship between the role of an agent and his personal attributes. In this work we conceive an application of the Shapley analysis for studying the contribution of both agent policies and attributes, putting them on equal footing. Since the computational complexity is NP-hard and scales exponentially with the number of participants in a transferable utility coalitional game, we resort to exploiting a-priori knowledge about the rules of the game to constrain the relations between the participants over a graph. We hence propose a method to determine a Hierarchical Knowledge Graph of agents' policies and features in a Multi-Agent System. Assuming a simulator of the system is available, the graph structure allows to exploit dynamic programming to assess the importances in a much faster way. We test the proposed approach in a proof-of-case environment deploying both hardcoded policies and policies obtained via Deep Reinforcement Learning. The proposed paradigm is less computationally demanding than trivially computing the Shapley values and provides great insight not only into the importance of an agent in a team but also into the attributes needed to deploy the policy at its best.

Mitotic activity is a crucial proliferation biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of different types of cancers. Nevertheless, mitosis counting is a cumbersome process for pathologists, prone to low reproducibility, due to the large size of augmented biopsy slides, the low density of mitotic cells, and pattern heterogeneity. To improve reproducibility, deep learning methods have been proposed in the last years using convolutional neural networks. However, these methods have been hindered by the process of data labelling, which usually solely consist of the mitosis centroids. Therefore, current literature proposes complex algorithms with multiple stages to refine the labels at pixel level, and to reduce the number of false positives. In this work, we propose to avoid complex scenarios, and we perform the localization task in a weakly supervised manner, using only image-level labels on patches. The results obtained on the publicly available TUPAC16 dataset are competitive with state-of-the-art methods, using only one training phase. Our method achieves an F1-score of 0.729 and challenges the efficiency of previous methods, which required multiple stages and strong mitosis location information.

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small perturbations of that instance that allows changing the classification outcome. This work aims to leverage Counterfactual Explanations to detect the important decision boundaries of a pre-trained black-box model. This information is used to build a supervised discretization of the features in the dataset with a tunable granularity. Using the discretized dataset, a smaller, therefore more interpretable Decision Tree can be trained, which, in addition, enhances the stability and robustness of the baseline Decision Tree. Numerical results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the approach in terms of accuracy and sparsity compared to the baseline Decision Tree.

We present edBB-Demo, a demonstrator of an AI-powered research platform for student monitoring in remote education. The edBB platform aims to study the challenges associated to user recognition and behavior understanding in digital platforms. This platform has been developed for data collection, acquiring signals from a variety of sensors including keyboard, mouse, webcam, microphone, smartwatch, and an Electroencephalography band. The information captured from the sensors during the student sessions is modelled in a multimodal learning framework. The demonstrator includes: i) Biometric user authentication in an unsupervised environment; ii) Human action recognition based on remote video analysis; iii) Heart rate estimation from webcam video; and iv) Attention level estimation from facial expression analysis.

In recent years there has been growing attention to interpretable machine learning models which can give explanatory insights on their behavior. Thanks to their interpretability, decision trees have been intensively studied for classification tasks, and due to the remarkable advances in mixed-integer programming (MIP), various approaches have been proposed to formulate the problem of training an Optimal Classification Tree (OCT) as a MIP model. We present a novel mixed-integer quadratic formulation for the OCT problem, which exploits the generalization capabilities of Support Vector Machines for binary classification. Our model, denoted as Margin Optimal Classification Tree (MARGOT), encompasses the use of maximum margin multivariate hyperplanes nested in a binary tree structure. To enhance the interpretability of our approach, we analyse two alternative versions of MARGOT, which include feature selection constraints inducing local sparsity of the hyperplanes. First, MARGOT has been tested on non-linearly separable synthetic datasets in 2-dimensional feature space to provide a graphical representation of the maximum margin approach. Finally, the proposed models have been tested on benchmark datasets from the UCI repository. The MARGOT formulation turns out to be easier to solve than other OCT approaches, and the generated tree better generalizes on new observations. The two interpretable versions are effective in selecting the most relevant features and maintaining good prediction quality.

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. Forecasts are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is called reconciliation, which adjusts the base forecasts computed for each time series. However, recent works on probabilistic reconciliation present several limitations. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on conditioning to reconcile any type of forecast distribution. We then introduce a new algorithm, called Bottom-Up Importance Sampling, to efficiently sample from the reconciled distribution. It can be used for any base forecast distribution: discrete, continuous, or in the form of samples, providing a major speedup compared to the current methods. Experiments on several temporal hierarchies show a significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts.